A viral post is circulating warning of a supposed mega-earthquake of magnitude 9.5 or 9.6, but scientists insist that it is currently impossible to predict with certainty when or where earthquakes will occur. Learn what the authorities say and what the difference is between an alert and a prediction.
A publication has resurfaced warning about a hypothetical mega-earthquake, although scientific authorities point out that at present the occurrence of earthquakes cannot be predicted with certainty.
The warning that resurfaced on social media
An image circulating on Facebook and other social media claims that “the most powerful earthquake in history is approaching” and indicates magnitudes of 9.5 or 9.6. Some versions add alarmist expressions such as “RED ALERT” or “DO NOT LEAVE HOME”.
This publication uses an image linked to Mhoni Vidente and the logo of El Heraldo de México, but a key point is that the original article is not recent.
Maps and charts showing the magnitude and impact of the powerful earthquake in Colombia – BBC News Mundo
The Herald of Mexico published the text on April 3, 2024, which included statements from Mhoni Vidente about a possible earthquake of magnitude 9.5 or 9.6 in areas such as the Indian Ocean, Indonesia or Japan.
The current viral version recycles that prediction, although there is no scientific support to claim that an earthquake of such magnitude is imminent.
Is there currently a “red alert” for a magnitude 9.5 earthquake?
There is no scientific alert that can announce in advance an earthquake of magnitude 9.5 or 9.6 on a specific date.
Mexico’s National Seismological Service is clear: to date, there is no technique that can predict when, where, or with what magnitude an earthquake will occur. Even countries with advanced systems, such as Japan and the United States, lack this capability.
Therefore, a message stating “do not leave your house because an earthquake is coming” should not be taken as an official warning unless it comes directly from Civil Protection or another responsible entity.
Mexican authorities recommend avoiding spreading information about earthquake predictions and only consulting official sources.
So, earthquakes can’t be predicted?
According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), no scientific organization has ever been able to accurately predict a major earthquake. A valid prediction would only be able to pinpoint the date, time, location, and magnitude.
What scientists can do is estimate probabilities.
By analyzing geological faults , seismic history, and tectonic movements, one can calculate the likelihood of a region experiencing a major earthquake in the coming decades.
This process is called seismic hazard assessment and does not involve knowing the exact day an earthquake will occur.
What is the difference between earthquake prediction and earthquake early warning?
The prediction would attempt to anticipate an earthquake before it starts.
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On the other hand, a seismic alert operates once the earthquake has already begun.
The Mexican Seismic Alert System (SASMEX) has sensors in different seismic zones that, upon detecting an earthquake with certain characteristics, can send a signal to other cities before the most intense waves arrive.
The time advantage can be seconds depending on the distance between the epicenter and the affected area.
The National Seismological Service indicates that the seismic alert system is not operational; SASMEX is managed by the Center for Seismic Instrumentation and Recording.
Therefore, receiving a seismic alert does not mean that someone predicted the earthquake.
Can a magnitude 9.5 earthquake really happen?
The largest earthquake recorded instrumentally was the one on May 22, 1960 in Chile, with a magnitude of 9.5, known as the Great Chilean Earthquake or Valdivia Earthquake.
Therefore, a magnitude of 9.5 is plausible from a physical point of view.
However, it cannot be said that a similar event is about to happen simply because someone has predicted it.
So far, that event remains the most intense documented.
And one of magnitude 9.6?
There is no instrumental record of an earthquake with a magnitude of 9.6.
The USGS explains that the maximum possible size of an earthquake depends on factors such as the extent of the fault, the amount of displacement, and tectonic characteristics. Furthermore, earthquakes of magnitude 10 or greater cannot occur on known faults.
A 9.6 would be extremely large; it would require a colossal tectonic rupture.
Although it is theoretically conceivable within certain physical limits, that does not allow us to know what will happen or where.
Did the 2024 prediction say it would happen in Mexico?
The original article in El Heraldo placed the supposed major earthquake in the Indian Ocean, Indonesia or Japan, and mentioned the continuation of movements in American areas such as Guerrero, Oaxaca and Chile.
This context is relevant because many current publications omit these details and transform the prediction into an immediate alert for any place where the message is shared.
Viral seismic prediction
Mexico is indeed a region with significant seismic activity. For example, in July 2026, the National Seismological Service reported 3,585 earthquakes in Mexican territory.
Geology books
Most are of low intensity, many imperceptible.
Having frequent seismic activity in Mexico does not imply that there is evidence of an imminent 9.5 magnitude earthquake.
Can a large earthquake trigger others?
A major seismic event can alter stresses in the Earth’s crust and, under certain conditions, trigger additional movements in nearby regions.
The USGS notes that waves from large earthquakes can trigger seismicity in distant locations with favorable geological conditions.
Earthquake alert
However, this occurs after the initial earthquake and does not allow us to predict exactly when another one will happen.
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Nor does it mean that a sequence of minor tremors heralds an upcoming mega-earthquake.
Can animals, weather, or certain dates be warning signs?
There is no solid scientific evidence to predict an earthquake by observing animal behavior, climate variations, lunar phases, or specific dates.
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Researchers have tested multiple potential signals without finding a reliable pattern to anticipate large earthquakes.
It is common for people to remember previous unusual behaviors after an earthquake and interpret them as signs.
The scientific problem lies in the fact that a prediction must work repeatedly before the event occurs.
To date, no technique meets this condition.
What to do instead of worrying about predictions
Living in seismic zones justifies adequate preparation.
It is recommended to know the evacuation routes and safe areas, secure heavy objects well, and locate gas, water and electricity shut-off valves.
It is also advisable to have important documents and basic supplies ready for an emergency.
In case of an earthquake, you should follow the instructions of Civil Protection and authorities, not leave a safe place because of a viral message, and avoid using elevators during evacuations.
Prevention is effective, even if we don’t know when the next earthquake will occur.
Beware of images of broken roads
The viral image shows a severely damaged road to create a sense of immediate danger.
A photograph of damage after an earthquake does not prove that another one is imminent.
Images of infrastructure damage after past earthquakes are often used in publications that predict future tremors. The reader then sees real consequences alongside predictions about the future.
To check for recent earthquakes in Mexico, you can consult the list of recent events at the National Seismological Service.
Do we have to stay locked up at home?
There is no general recommendation to “not leave home” based on a prediction.
An earthquake cannot be announced far enough in advance to require millions to remain indoors.
Furthermore, being inside a building is not always safer if the structure is damaged.
The instructions depend on each case and should come from Civil Protection.
If an official evacuation or protocol is activated following a real event, those instructions must be followed.
Why do these messages go viral again?
Headlines like “RED ALERT: DO NOT LEAVE HOME” generate an immediate reaction because they associate a great danger with urgent action.
If you add magnitudes like 9.5 or 9.6, the message seems even more imminent.
However, the original news of this case was published in April 2024, not in August 2026.
The image continues to circulate for years with words like “it’s coming,” making those who see it think that the alert is current.
Conclusion
The viral post combines a plausible event with claims lacking scientific support.
There are very strong earthquakes, the largest recorded being the magnitude 9.5 earthquake in Chile in 1960.
However, no scientist can guarantee that a magnitude 9.5 or 9.6 earthquake will soon occur in Japan, Indonesia, Mexico, or anywhere else.
The prediction attributed to Mhoni Vidente was published by El Heraldo in April 2024 and does not constitute an official alert.
The National Seismological Service, CENAPRED and USGS agree that earthquakes cannot be predicted with exact date, location and magnitude.
The appropriate attitude towards seismic risk is to stay informed through official channels and have a prevention plan, not to follow viral predictions.
